Aim
Main objective of the project is arriving at an accurate and data-based modelling of the expected course of an influenza pandemic, and of the impact of public health measures on its scale and severity. Aims of the project include the study of the social acceptability of public health measures during a pandemic, and of the behavioural changes that are to be expected in such circumstances. Final aim will be the development of a knowledge-based computational environment necessary for real-time analysis and modelling in case of a pandemic.
(Expected) results
Improvement of the characterisation of population contact and travel patterns in epidemic models, on the basis of extended data collection, and model-driven extrapolations when data are lacking.Evaluation of the social acceptance of restriction measures in case of a pandemic, and of the impact of behavioural changes on the expected epidemic course. Development of a suite of models for the spatio-temporal spread of a new influenza pandemic, that integrate the dual approaches of compartmental modelling and individual-based simulations.
Extensive evaluation of the impact of intervention options for containing and mitigating a pandemic influenza outbreak.
Development of an integrated environment for the efficient and extensible simulations of individual-based models.
Potential applications
Providing advice to the health authorities in case of a pandemic.Development of a research team with rapid analysis capability in case of an epidemic outbreak.