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To stay updated on the last results of our project, visit http://www.flumodcont.eu

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IN THIS NUMBER

• INTRODUCING THE FLUMODCONT PROJECT
• MAIN OBJECTIVES OF THE PROJECT
• INFLUENZA A(H1N1)v : ESTIMATES OF EPIDEMIOLOGICAL PARAMETERS
• SURVEYS
• DATA WAREHOUSE
• NEWS

  

INTRODUCING THE FLUMODCONT PROJECT

FluModCont (Modelling the spread of pandemic influenza and strategies for its containment and mitigation) is a project funded by the Seventh Framework Programme (FP7), the EU's main instrument for funding research in Europe. The aim of the FluModCont project is to improve the theory of disease spread and to implement by statistical studies and by designing new software, accurate and data-based modelling of the expected course of an influenza pandemic and of the impact of public health measures on its scale and severity. The emergence of the influenza A(H1N1)v strain has made the need to be prepared for an influenza pandemic even more obvious.

MAIN OBJECTIVES OF THE PROJECT

The main objective of the project is to provide accurate and data-based modelling of the course of an influenza pandemic and of the impact of public health measures on its scale and severity, for health policy formulation and planning. The spread of the influenza A(H1N1)v made the FluModCont research very topical. However, the emergency has changed the project timeline and is forcing the partners to use methods and models still in development and not fully validated.

INFLUENZA A(H1N1)v : ESTIMATES OF EPIDEMIOLOGICAL PARAMETERS

FluModCont researchers at Imperial College of London have been working, in close contact with WHO and Mexican authorities, at the analysis of the preliminary data from Mexico. The results of the study have been published on Science (and anticipated on-line in Science Express). The analysis has provided a first estimate of the reproductive ratio R0 (the average total number of secondary cases infected by a primary infective) and of other epidemiological parameters.    READ THE SCIENCE ARTICLE >>

SURVEYS

ADVISORS TO POLICY MAKERS IN EU

FluModCont researchers carried out a survey in order to identify the specific pandemic influenza interventions that a selection of different EU member states might be considering before the spread of the influenza A(H1N1)v. A questionnaire was sent at the end of January to all participants in the "Pandemic influenza planning assumptions" meeting organized by ECDC on January 20-21, 2009. The questionnaire was addressed to advisors to policy makers in the different member states; they were asked about their national pandemic plan, and also about their own perception about the likelihood that specific public health measures would be applied in the event of a pandemic in their country, whilst assuming a moderate to severe pandemic.

BEHAVIOURAL RESPONCES TO NOVEL FLU

FluModCont is now carrying out a survey in four European states (Finland, Italy, Romania and United Kingdom) in order to assess behavioural responses to the emergence of the novel influenza strain and the declaration of a pandemic, and to evaluate the acceptance of possible restriction measures directed at mitigating the influenza pandemic. Such a survey of the general public had been planned to be performed in May-June, and a questionnaire had been prepared with questions concerning seasonal influenza, and hypothetical scenarios of a pandemic.

DATA WAREHOUSE

Existing population data from previous projects and new information from EuroStat and other international sources have been collected and brought into a unified database and repository (warehouse) for the use of the consortium. Most data discussed are available for use by all the interested parties, according to the licensing issues of the owners of the data.

NEWS

INFORMAL MATHEMATICAL MODELLING NETWORK

An informal network of mathematical modellers, administered by the World Health Organization (WHO) through its Health Security and Environment cluster (WHO-HSE), has been established with several FluModCont researchers participating. The first meeting has been held in Geneve on 1-3 July. A first publication on the work of the MM network will be published soon in the Weekly Epidemiological Record (WER). For more info see  http://www.who.int/entity/wer/2009/wer8434/en/index.html

INFLUENZA A(H1N1)v MODELLING GROUP AT ECDC SURVEILLANCE MEETING

The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) has organized on 14-15 July the fourth Meeting of the Surveillance and Studies in a Pandemic Working Group with the aim of coordinating the activities of health policy institutes during the next influenza season, presumably characterized by the presence of the new pandemic strain. A session of the meeting has been dedicated to present the modelling work on influenza A(H1N1)v of some European groups collaborating with ECDC. For more info see http://www.ecdc.europa.eu

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