Flumodcont project, newsletter no 2, August 2010
Flumodcont Newsletter
August 2010, no 2
Flumodcont, modelling the spread of pandemic influenza and strategies for its containment and mitigation
To stay updated on the last results of our project, visit www.flumodcont.eu
IN THIS NUMBER
• OVERVIEW ON THE EXPERIENCES IN MODELLING THE A/H1N1 PANDEMIC
• ANALYSIS ON EARLY DATA ON H1N1 PANDEMIC
• ANALYSIS OF DATA ON PAST PANDEMICS
• INVESTIGATIONS OF INTERVENTION OPTIONS
• SECOND SURVEY IS RUNNING
• NEWS: FILM ABOUT THE FLUMODCONT PROJECT
• DISSEMINATION ACTIVITIES
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OVERVIEW ON THE EXPERIENCES IN MODELLING THE A/H1N1 PANDEMIC
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Several groups involved in the FLUMODCONT project have collaborated with WHO and national health authorities in the analysis of early data available about the epidemiological features of the new A/H1N1 influenza strain, in the real-time modelling of the epidemic spread, in the analysis of possible intervention scenarios, and now, once more data are becoming available, in a retrospective analysis of the epidemic course.
It seems appropriate asking whether modelling activities has succeeded in assessing the likely corse of the H1N1 epidemic and in advising public health policy, and what we have learnt from the first experience of real-time modelling of an influenza pandemic
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ANALYSIS ON EARLY DATA ON H1N1 PANDEMIC
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A review of information concerning reproduction number R, generation time, household transmission, age-specific patterns, South-hemisphere data, severity.
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ANALYSIS OF DATA ON PAST PANDEMICS
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A completed deliverable of the project has been a compilation of the available datasets for past pandemics, with a list of key epidemiological parameters to estimate.
30 reports presenting original data have been found: 20 included data for the 1918 pandemic, 9 for the 1957 pandemic and 7 for the 1968 pandemic. Moreover, the 1889 pandemic (Russian flu) has also been studied by analyzing the excess mortality in 96 places with more than 35,000 inhabitants.
READ MORE >>
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INVESTIGATIONS OF INTERVENTION OPTIONS
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Mitigation options that have been explored through modelling include anti-viral use, vaccination, school closures. In particular, reactive school closure has been modelled in detail, and its potential effects on the transmission of H1N1 has been extensively studied by partners of the project.
READ MORE >>
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SECOND SURVEY IS RUNNING
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After the spread of A(H1N1) influenza it was decided to repeat the survey on behavioural responses to a pandemic and acceptance of restriction measures during spring/summer 2010, to be able to assess changes in perception after the major pandemic wave, and to compare the results with available data on actual behaviour. During this second survey it was decided to try to re-contact as much as possible the first sample already contacted during the first survey. The questionnaire has been adapted to real experience on swine flu, in order to compare results from the first survey and the real behaviour in issues like taking antivirals, following public advice, isolation at home and vaccination.
The second survey should be completed in all participating countries (Finland, Italy, Romania and UK) by the end of August.
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NEWS: FILM ABOUT THE FLUMODCONT PROJECT
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Flumodcont was selected by the EU as a subject of a film about scientific European research projects. We have been contacted by a German TV production that has the task of producing 10 films on advanced scientific research projects in medicine. The aim is to bring the general public about scientific matters, by explaining the scientific language in a very simple manner. The film will be distributed in September in European channels of popular science as well as via Internet.
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DISSEMINATION ACTIVITIES
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New publications and presentations are available
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