General

First assessment of A H1N1) v risks published in the Science magazine

Researchers from the MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling at Imperial College London, led by Professor Neil Ferguson, working in collaboration with the World Health Organisation and public health agencies in Mexico have assessed the novel A H1N1 influenza using data to the end of April. The results of this study were published in the Science magazine.

It seems that the new strain of H1N1 acts more like a pandemic strain than regular seasonal flu. The researchers' best estimate is that in Mexico influenza A (H1N1) is fatal in around 4 in 1,000 cases, which would make this strain of influenza as lethal as the one found in the 1957 pandemic.

Transmissibility is substantially higher and affects young adults more often than seasonal flu. These data justify the decision of the World Health Organisation to raise the worldwide pandemic alert level to Phase 5, one step down from a full pandemic.

The article is available online: Full text Pdf version

A (H1N1)v : preliminar estimation of the reproduction ratio from the outbreak in Mexico

A preliminar estimation of the reproduction ratio for new influenza A N1H1 from the outbreak in Mexico, published by Pierre-Yves Boëlle (member of the FluModCont project), Jean-Claude Desenclos and Pascale Bernillon is available online :

http://www.eurosurveillance.org/images/dynamic/EE/V14N19/art19205.pdf

Swine flu outbreaks in Mexico and the US: a public health event of international concern

26 April 2009 - 13:00

In a communication following the meeting of the Emergency Committee under the International Health Regulations (IHR) yesterday, Margaret Chan, Director-General of the World Health Organisation (WHO) announced that the Swine flu outbreaks in Mexico and the United States are a public health event of international concern (PHEIC).

However, the Committee decided not to raise the pandemic alert level (from the current level 3) considering the fact that there are still gaps in knowledge about the clinical features, epidemiology and virology of reported cases and the appropriate responses taken.

WHO press briefing on Swine Influenza

Press Briefing from 26 April 2009 with Dr Keiji Fukuda, WHO Assistant Director-General - Health Security and Environment. "The situation is serious" he says.