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Publications

  1. Merler S., Ajelli M., Pugliese A., Ferguson N., Determinants of the spatiotemporal dynamics of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Europe: implications for real-time modelling, PLoS Computational Biology, 2011, in press
  2. Finnie T.J.R, Behaviour and Control of Influenza in institutions and small societies, in press
  3. Opatowski L, Fraser C, Griffin J, de Silva E, Van Kerkhove MD, Lyons EJ, Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM. (2011) Transmission Characteristics of the 2009 H1N1 Influenza Pandemic: Comparison of 8 Southern Hemisphere Countries, in press
  4. Barrass, I., Leng, J., ‘Improving Computational Models and Practices: Scenario Testing and Forecasting the Spread of Infectious Disease’ chapter in ‘Handbook of Research on Computational Science and Engineering: Theory and Practice’, edited by J. Leng and W. Sharrock and to be published by IGI Global in July 2011
  5. Andrew D.C. Williams, Ian M. Hall, G. James Rubin, Richard Amlôt and Steve Leach, An individual-based simulation of pneumonic plague transmission following an outbreak and the significance of intervention compliance, Epidemics Volume 3, Issue 2, June 2011, Pages 95-102   link 
  6. Tini Garske, Hongjie Yu, Zhibin Peng, Min Ye, Hang Zhou, Xiaowen Cheng, Jiabing Wu, and Neil Ferguson, Travel patterns in China, PloS One, 2011 Feb 2;6(2):e16364  link
  7. Christl A. Donnelly, Lyn Finelli, Simon Cauchemez, Sonja J. Olsen, Saumil Doshi, Michael L. Jackson, Erin D. Kennedy, Laurie Kamimoto, Tiffany L. Marchbanks, Oliver V. Morgan, Minal Patel, David L. Swerdlow, Neil Ferguson, Serial intervals and the temporal distribution of secondary infections within households of 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1): implications for influenza control recommendations, Clin Infect Dis, vol 52 (suppl. 1), 2011, S123-S130  link
  8. Caterina Rizzo, Marco Ajelli, Stefano Merler, Andrea Pugliese, Ilaria Barbetta, Stefania Salmaso and Piero Manfredi, Epidemiology and transmission dynamics of the 1918–19 pandemic influenza in Florence, Italy . Vaccine Volume 29, Supplement 2, 22 July 2011, Pages B27-B32
  9. Silhol R, Boëlle PY., Modelling the effects of population structure on childhood disease: the case of varicella, PLoS Comput Biol. 2011 July; 7(7): e1002105.   link
  10. Pierre-Yves Boëlle, Séverine Ansart, Anne Cori, Alain-Jacques Valleron, Transmission parameters of the A/H1N1 (2009) influenza virus pandemic: a review, Influenza and Other respiratory viruses (5,5), pages 306-316, September 2011  link
  11. Stephan Flasche, Niel Hense, Pierre-Yves Boelle, Joel Mossong, V. Marijn van Ballegooijen, Baltazar Nunes, Caterina rizzo, Florin Popovici, Patricia Santa-Olalla, Frantiska Hrubà, Kremena Parmakova, Marc Baguelin, Albert Jan van Hoek, Jean-Claude Desenclos, Pascale Bernillon, Amparo Laraurri Càmara, Jacco Wallinga, Tommi Asikainen, Peter J. White, W. John Edmunds, Different transmission patterns in the early stages of the influenza A(H1N1)v pandemic: a comparative analysis of 12 European countries, Epidemics, 3, 2011, 125-33  link 
  12. Donker T, van Boven M, van Ballegooijen WM, Van't Klooster TM, Wielders CC, Wallinga J., Nowcasting pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 hospitalizations in the Netherlands, Eur J Epidemiol. 2011 Mar;26(3):195-201. Epub 2011 Mar 18  link
  13. Simon Cauchemez, Achuyt Bhattarai, Tiffany L. Marchbanks, Ryan P. Fagan, Stephen Ostroff, Neil M. Ferguson, David Swerdlow, Role of social networks in shaping disease transmission during a community outbreak of 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, Vol 108 nò.7, 2011, 2825-2830  link
  14. Piero Poletti, Marco Ajelli, Stefano Merler, The effect of risk perception on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza dynamics,  PLoS ONE 6(2): e16460. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0016460      link
  15. Steve Leach and Ian Hall, Modelling emerging viral epidemics for public health protection, Diagnostic virology protocols, Methods in Molecular Biology, 2011, Volume 665, 435-465,    link
  16. Ajelli M., Pugliese A., Merler S., Declich S., Rizzo C., Evaluation of model prediction during the early phase of the 2009 influenza pandemic in Italy, Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses, 5, 2011, 202-229
  17. M. Ajelli, S. Merler, A. Pugliese and C. Rizzo, Model predictions and evaluation of possible control strategies for the 2009 A/H1N1v influenza pandemic in Italy. Epidemiology and Infection, 13, 2011, 68-79  link
  18. House T, Baguelin M, Van Hoek AJ, White PJ, Sadique Z, Eames K, Read JM, Hens N, Melegaro A, Edmunds WJ, Keeling MJ, Modelling the impact of local reactive school closures on critical care provision during an influenza pandemic, Proc Biol Sci. 2011 Sep 22;278(1719):2753-60. Epub 2011 Feb 2  link
  19. Laetitia Canini and Fabrice Carrat, Population Modeling of Influenza A/H1N1 Virus Kinetics and Symptom Dynamics, Journal of Virology, March 2011, p. 2764-2770, Vol. 85, No. 6  link
  20. Fabrizio Iozzi, Francesco Trusiano, Matteo Chinazzi, Francesco C. Billari, Emilio Zagheni, Stefano Merler, Marco Ajelli, Emanuele Del Fava, Piero Manfredi, Little Italy: An Agent-Based Approach to the Estimation of Contact Patterns- Fitting Predicted Matrices to Serological Data, PLoS Computational Biology, 6(12), 2010  link
  21. Pellis L, Ferguson NM, Fraser C, Epidemic growth rate and household reproduction number in communities of households, schools and workplaces, J Math Biol. 2010 Dec 1. [Epub ahead of print]  link
  22. Andrew D.C. Williams, Ian M. Hall, G. James Rubin, Richard Amlot, Steve Leach. An individual-based simulation of pneumonic plague transmission following an outbreak and the significance of intervention compliance. Epidemics 3 (2011) 95-102  link 
  23. Eggo RM; Cauchemez S; Ferguson NM. Spatial dynamics of the 1918 influenza pandemic in England, Wales and the United States. J R Soc Interface Published online before print June 23, 2010, doi: 10.1098/rsif.2010.0216   link 
  24. Truscott J., Fraser C., Cauchemez S., Meeyai A.,Hinsley W., Donnelly CA., Ghani A., Ferguson N., Essential epidemiological mechanisms underpinning the transmission dynamics of seasonal influenza, J.R.Soc. Interface, epub ahead of print (June 29 2011), link 
  25. S. Merler, M. Ajelli, Human mobility and population heterogeneity in the spread of an epidemic, Procedia Computer Science, 1, 2010, 2231-2238  link
  26. Alain-Jacques Valleron, Anne Cori, Sophie Valtat, Sofia Meurisse, Fabrice Carrat, Pierre-Yves Boëlle, Transmissibility and geographic spread of the 1889 influenza pandemic,  PNAS May 11, 2010 vol. 107 no. 19 8778-8781 link
  27. Ajelli M., Goncalves B., Balcan D., Colizza V., Hu H., Ramasco J.J., Merler S., Vespignani A., Comparing large-scale computational approaches to epidemic modeling: agent-based versus structured metapopulation models, BMC Infectious Disease, 10:190, 2010 link
  28. Stefano Merler, Marco Ajelli, The role of population heterogeneity and human mobility in the spread of pandemic influenza. Proc. R. Soc. B 22 February 2010 vol. 277 no. 1681 557-565  link
  29. Maria D. Van Kerchove, Tommi Asikainen, Niel G. Becker, Steven Bjorge, Jean-Cluade Desenclos, Thais dos Santos, Cristophe Fraser, Gabriel M. Leung, Marc Lipsitch, Ira M. Longini Jr, Emma S. McBryde, Cathy E. Roth, David K. Shay, Derek J. Smith, Jacco Wallinga, Peter J. White, Neil M. Ferguson, Steven Riley, Studies needed to address public health challenges of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic:i nsights from modelling, PLoS Curr, Vol 7, 2010  link 
  30. Jacco Wallinga, Michiel van Boven, Marc Lipsitch. Optimizing infectious disease interventions during an emerging epidemic. PNAS January 12, 2010 vol.107 no. 2 923-928   link
  31. van Boven M, Donker T, van der Lubben M, van Gageldonk-Lafeber RB, te Beest DE, Koopmans M, Meijer A, Timen A, Swaan C, Dalhuijsen A, Hahné S, van den Hoek A, Teunis P, van der Sande MA, Wallinga J.Transmission of novel influenza virus A(H1N1) in households using antiviral prophylaxis, PLoS One. 2010 Jul 7;5(7):e11442  link
  32. Simon Cauchemez, Christl A. Donnelly,  Carrie Reed,  Azra C. Ghani, Christophe Fraser,  Charlotte K. Kent, Lyn Finelli and Neil M. Ferguson. Household Transmission of 2009 Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) Virus in the United States. The New England Journal of Medicine, Volume 361:2619-2627 December 31, 2009, Number 27  link
  33. James Truscott, Christophe Fraser, Wes Hinsley, Simon Cauchemez, Christl Donnelly, Azra Ghani, Neil Ferguson, and Aronrag Meeyai. Quantifying the transmissibility of human influenza and its seasonal variation in temperate regions. Version 3. PLoS Curr Influenza. 2009 November 3 [revised 2009 November 10 ]: RRN1125.  link
  34. Azra C Ghani, Marc Baguelin, Jamie Griffin, Stefan Flasche, Richard Pebody, Albert Jan van Hoek, Simon Cauchemez, Ian M Hall, Christl Donnelly, Chris Robertson, Michael T White, Iain Barrass, Christophe Fraser, Alison Bermingham, James Truscott, Joanna Ellis, Helen Jenkins, George Kafatos, Tini Garske, Ross Harris, Jim McMenamin, Colin Hawkins, Nick Phin, Andre Charlett, Maria Zambon, W John Edmonds, Mike Catchpole, Steve Leach, Peter White, Neil M Ferguson, and Ben Cooper. The Early Transmission Dynamics of H1N1pdm Influenza in the United Kingdom. PLoS Curr Influenza. 2009 November 16: RRN1130.  link
  35. House, Thomas; Baguelin, Marc; van Hoek, Albert Jan; Flasche, Stefan; White, P; Sadique, Md Zia; Eames, Ken; Read, Jonathan; Hens, Niel; Melegaro, Alessia; Keeling, Matt. Can Reactive School Closures help critical care provision during the current influenza pandemic?. PLoS Currents Influenza. 2009 Oct 28:RRN1119.  link
  36. C Turbelin, C Pelat, PY Boëlle, D Lévy-Bruhl, F Carrat, T Blanchon, T Hanslik. Early estimates of 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) virus activity in general practice in France: incidence of influenza-like illness and age distribution of reported cases. Eurosurveillance Volume 14, Issue 39  link
  37. Laura Forsberg White, Jacco Wallinga, Lyn Finelli , Carrie Reed, Steven Riley , Marc Lipsitch  , Marcello Pagano. Estimation of the reproductive number and the serial interval in early phase of the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic in the USA. Influenza Other Respi Viruses Volume 3, Issue 6, pages 267-276, 2009 link
  38. G James Rubin, Richard Amlôt,  Lisa Page,  Simon Wessely. Public perceptions, anxiety, and behaviour change in relation to the swine flu outbreak: cross sectional telephone survey. BMJ 2009; 339: b2651  link
  39. Balinska, Marta; Rizzo, Caterina. Behavioural responses to influenza pandemics: What do we know? PLoS Currents Influenza. 2009 Sep 10:RRN1037    link 
  40. A. Lunelli, A. Pugliese, C. Rizzo. Epidemic patch models applied to pandemic influenza: Contact matrix, stochasticity, robustness of predictions. Mathematical Biosciences, Volume 220, Issue 1, July 2009, Pages 24-33  link
  41. S. Merler, M. Ajelli, and C. Rizzo. Age-prioritized use of antivirals during an influenza pandemic. BMC Infectious Diseases, 9:117, 2009.
  42. P. Poletti, B. Caprile, M. Ajelli, A. Pugliese, and S. Merler. Spontaneous behavioural changes in response to epidemics. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 260(1):31-40, 2009.  link
  43. M. Ajelli and S. Merler. An individual-based model of hepatitis A transmission. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 259(3):478-488, 2009   link
  44. Christophe Fraser, 1, Christl A. Donnelly,1, Simon Cauchemez,1, William P. Hanage,1, Maria D. Van Kerkhove,1 T. Déirdre Hollingsworth,1 Jamie Griffin,1 Rebecca F. Baggaley,1 Helen E. Jenkins,1 Emily J. Lyons,1 Thibaut Jombart,1 Wes R. Hinsley,1 Nicholas C. Grassly,1 Francois Balloux,1 Azra C. Ghani,1 Neil M. Ferguson,1, Andrew Rambaut,2 Oliver G. Pybus,3 Hugo Lopez-Gatell,4 Celia M. Alpuche-Aranda,5 Ietza Bojorquez Chapela,4 Ethel Palacios Zavala,4 Dulce Ma. Espejo Guevara,6 Francesco Checchi,7 Erika Garcia,7 Stephane Hugonnet,7 Cathy Roth,7.
    Pandemic Potential of a Strain of Influenza A (H1N1): Early Findings. Originally published in Science Express on 11 May 2009  Science 19 June 2009: Vol. 324. no. 5934, pp. 1557 - 1561 DOI: 10.1126/science.1176062   link
  45. Pierre-Yves Boëlle, Jean-Claude Desenclos, Pascale Bernillon. Rapid communications. A preliminary estimation of the reproduction ratio for new influenza A(H1N1) from the outbreak in Mexico, March-April 2009. EUROSURVEILLANCE Vol . 14 · Issue 19 · 14 May 2009   link
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